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#2641 Roman Alymov

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Posted 26 November 2015 - 1038 AM

Both countries have poor economic situations and them both hitting each other is like watching two dummies fight. Not good for their long term economic interests.

Continuing sending Rus tourists (1 920 000 in 2014) in situation like this is nonsense. Maintaining close economic ties with country we are on a brink of war with is complicated even technically, not mentioning politically. After all Russia is hardly dependent on Turkish business (even Ukraine is or was more important).


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#2642 glenn239

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Posted 26 November 2015 - 1042 AM

Savantu What air power ? 20 Sukhois operating from a limited air base 40km from the Turkish border ? It would be overrun before the planes can be fueled and armed.

 

 

 

 

The Ukrainian army tried that with the rebels on a combat zone less than 40km and got smeared every time – and that was with the RuAF not in the picture.  

 


 

And what would Russia have to gain from fighting Turkey/Saudi Arabia ??

 

 

 

 

$100 a barrel for oil comes to mind.  Even higher if the RuAF decides to go after Saudi oil production.


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#2643 JasonJ

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Posted 26 November 2015 - 1044 AM

 

Both countries have poor economic situations and them both hitting each other is like watching two dummies fight. Not good for their long term economic interests.

Continuing sending Rus tourists (1 920 000 in 2014) in situation like this is nonsense. Maintaining close economic ties with country we are on a brink of war with is complicated even technically, not mentioning politically. After all Russia is hardly dependent on Turkish business (even Ukraine is or was more important).

 

 

If a country's GDP growth is less than 1% annual growth, they are falling behind the curve. At that point, or lower, they really need every ounce that can be mustered. Well, just unfortunate for them both in the end that neither can help it. Turkey is probably at greater fault in stupidity but whose fault it is doesn't change what will happen, which is the continued reduction of significance because of relatively weakening economic power.


Edited by JasonJ, 26 November 2015 - 1050 AM.

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#2644 JasonJ

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Posted 26 November 2015 - 1046 AM

 

Savantu What air power ? 20 Sukhois operating from a limited air base 40km from the Turkish border ? It would be overrun before the planes can be fueled and armed.

 

 

 

 

The Ukrainian army tried that with the rebels on a combat zone less than 40km and got smeared every time – and that was with the RuAF not in the picture.  

 


 

And what would Russia have to gain from fighting Turkey/Saudi Arabia ??

 

 

 

 

$100 a barrel for oil comes to mind.  Even higher if the RuAF decides to go after Saudi oil production.

 

 

Russia has it coming from all corners if they do that..


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#2645 JasonJ

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Posted 26 November 2015 - 1049 AM

bnmbnvghfcghcf.jpg


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#2646 Tomi Sarvanko

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Posted 26 November 2015 - 1052 AM

http://thehill.com/b...rkish-shootdown


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#2647 Simon Tan

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Posted 26 November 2015 - 1056 AM

A Turkish divisional effort to hold the Al Bab plains and to create a 'no fly zone' for their clients to stage in, possibly. I'd be very amused with that though since it would make them fair game for the Russians and Iranians. Of course they could widen the conflict and that would be OK too. Unless they can somehow convince NATO, or more than say Poland and Estonia to go all in, it might just get a tad unpleasant.

 

Of course the alternative is to accept the defeat of their proxies by the unholy alliance of heretics and unbelievers. In this case it would be best if all the Syrians and foreign fighters were to die gloriously in Syria. It would be quite a problem if tens of thousands of militiamen were to come back into Turkey, especially if they did so with some of their equipment. Disgruntled fighters with small arms will make southern Turkey a pretty unpleasant place to be. Yes, they could be mobilized against the PKK but I'm not sure if that really is a winning hand. Otherwise you have many battle seasoned military age males with no prospects, no money and much frustration.

 

The Syrians might be bled white, there are many Iraqi Shiites ready to take the fight to the enemy. Khataib Hezbollah may not be as well trained and seasoned as Lebanese Hezbollah but they are very numerous and they are well equipped. Stiffened with Saberin and supported by Russian voenspets, they have been very effective in Aleppo.

 

The notion of a Saudi intervention through Iraq or Jordan is really even more hilarious than their showing in Sadaa, on their own border. I think it would be very amusing, since it would collapse logistically long before they got near any Syrians. Still, the prospect of Hezbollah M1A1s and Saudi M1A2s getting into a brawl in Anbar is very attractive.


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#2648 Roman Alymov

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Posted 26 November 2015 - 1057 AM

 

 

The Ukrainian army tried that with the rebels on a combat zone less than 40km and got smeared every time – and that was with the RuAF not in the picture.  

 

 

This time situation is much more complex – Azerbaijan would surely attack Armenia to use opportunity to return disputed territories wile Russia is busy, Iran would not be able to stay away, Russian forces will need land corridor to support Armenia   - meaning Georgia will be gone too, with Russian forces forming new land front against Turkey like century ago. Ukraine would surely jump into with their hope to grab something while Russia is in another war  -meaning Ukraine most likely will be gone too, and so on. It is local WW3, with high chances of growing into global and nuclear (after all İncirlik by some reports got nuclear storage)


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#2649 Brian Kennedy

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Posted 26 November 2015 - 1058 AM

The world is getting so weird http://mobile.nytime...t-in-yemen.html
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#2650 Simon Tan

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Posted 26 November 2015 - 1101 AM

It's logical. Eric Prince has been there for a few years. The Emiratis cannot afford to keep their brigade deployment ad infinitum and they aren't strong enough to push in Sanaa.

The Iranians are using Afghan and Pakistani mercs.


Edited by Simon Tan, 26 November 2015 - 1102 AM.

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#2651 Roman Alymov

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Posted 26 November 2015 - 1111 AM

“I gave the order myself” − Turkish PM on downing Russian plane

http://thinkpol.ca/2...-russian-plane/


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#2652 Roman Alymov

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Posted 26 November 2015 - 1120 AM

S-400 officially deployed in Syria http://ria.ru/syria/...1328882635.html

CUvRTQOUEAQf4YB.jpg

 

Video here http://tvzvezda.ru/n...261535-m6hb.htm


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#2653 BansheeOne

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Posted 26 November 2015 - 1121 AM

 

[...]

 

When is self-defense triggered?

 
Article 51 of the U.N. charter permits the use of force in the event of an "armed attack." However, in a 1986 case, the International Court of Justice concluded that a "mere frontier incident" might constitute a breach of the U.N. charter, but did not necessarily trigger the right to use force absent a showing that the attack was of a significant scale and effect. Most nations also accept that states threatened with an imminent attack can respond in self-defense so long as they did not have under the circumstances "any means of halting the attack other than recourse to armed force," as noted by Leo Van den hole in the American University International Law Review.
 
[...]

 

Uhhh ... applying Article 51 UNC to what in the end is itself a concluded frontier incident is sorta like saying "somebody breaking into your house doesn't authorize you to go to war with him and trash his place in self-defense". It's not saying you can't use force in the incident.


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#2654 Simon Tan

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Posted 26 November 2015 - 1126 AM

How did they get the Triumfs to Hmeimeim so quickly?


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#2655 seahawk

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Posted 26 November 2015 - 1134 AM

They were already there.


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#2656 Roman Alymov

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Posted 26 November 2015 - 1137 AM

How did they get the Triumfs to Hmeimeim so quickly?

Well, that is the question Russian forums are asking. Officially, it was airlifted within 24 hours from Moscow region (“Зенитно-ракетный комплекс был в течение суток переброшен военно-транспортной авиацией из Подмосковья”), but some members believe whole set or some key components where there for some time in advance.


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#2657 savantu

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Posted 26 November 2015 - 1141 AM

 

 

Turks are fighting Kurds inside Turkey for decades with all they have including armor etc. and are still unable to suppress them. Open invasion into Syria, with Turkish forces supporting or replacing ISIS and other “moderate rebels”, would just stretch their forces even further and provide non-Syrian Kurds opportunity to shoot their real enemy, not proxies.


There are no Kurds on the North-South axis Aleppo to Damasc. And the turks are smarted than getting involved into an insurgency in kurd dominated areas. The goals is to topple Assad, not fight the kurds.

 

So you think Kurds in other areas (including inside Turkey and in cross-border areas) would just wait for their fate, perfectly knowing that after Turks finish Assad – they are next on the list? Any Turkish involvement would immediately made them attacking Turkey everywhere they can, while Turks are busy. And Saudi involvement would openly bring Russia and Iran into conflict, meaning there are high chances of another tanker ships hunt and cruise missiles hitting oil terminals – resulting in oil prices change.

 

What fate ? Do you actually believe Turkey would do ethnic cleansing in Syria ?! The second Assad is toppled UN would be called to step in and organize the transition. Everybody would support this especially the UE which is getting desperate to stop the immigrant flow.


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#2658 wilhelm

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Posted 26 November 2015 - 1141 AM

Is the S-400 system air mobile? I see two launcher vehicles in that video...I assume they were deployed with radar/control vehicles?


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#2659 Roman Alymov

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Posted 26 November 2015 - 1146 AM

What fate ? Do you actually believe Turkey would do ethnic cleansing in Syria ?! The second Assad is toppled UN would be called to step in and organize the transition. Everybody would support this especially the UE which is getting desperate to stop the immigrant flow.

 

 

Tell it to Armenians, not me. 


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#2660 Roman Alymov

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Posted 26 November 2015 - 1154 AM

 

 


 

Fromt he same source. Thought it was an interesting insight, and points to quite what a loose cannon the Kurds might turn out to be.

 

Looks like Kurds control only relatively small portion of Syria, so probably it is plausible – still, Iran may not like it. Kurds themselves are not angels  - they actively participated in Armenian genocide on Turkish side, before Turks turned on them later. The very idea of creating national states out of what was multi-ethnic Ottoman empire is time bomb, especially when people like Erdogan are trying to convert national state into nationalistic one.


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