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#1441 JWB

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Posted 14 October 2017 - 1214 PM

 

 

The notion that China will invade North Korea is absurd so China has nothing to fear from North Korean nukes

China cannot invade because it fears NK has nukes. 

 

 

 

The SLOC to South Korea cannot be protected

Why not? Is PLAN all powerful?

 

 

 

That’s probably easier to type than do.  If war comes to North Korea both the Chinese and Russians can set up “security zones” in the north of the country, which would function like safe havens for the North Korean army and government, and then what South Korea has is an endless war.  And that’s even assuming Kim doesn’t make South Korea glow or dunk them in VX.

The odds of NK invading SK are vanishingly small. The odds of SK invading NK are even lower. At this point both nations simply want to be left alone and talk about re-unification at some future date.


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#1442 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 15 October 2017 - 0206 AM

North Korea doesnt want reunification with the South. It might posture about that, particularly by doing it with a victorious army, but if you were Kim, why would you want to? You would only be signing your own death warrant in the transition.

 

One might point to the idea that nations sometimes have deeply unrealistic expections of what their armies can do. Look at Saddam Hussain's invasion of Iran, or invasion of Kuwait and you see my point. Bestest Korea is run by someone whose opinion only matters to himself, and probably pays scant attention to his military advisor's. Can anyone really be certain that they wont try to invade the south? Not really. Ill grant you its not likely, but we are assuming someone whom assassinates family members and excecutes people with AA guns is rational, which might be something of an error.

 

I think this regime, before its falls, will come out its box and try to distract the population by kicking off something with its neighbours. Its not if, its when.


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#1443 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 15 October 2017 - 0208 AM

North Korea threatens Australia as Australia and ROK have 2+2 meeting and issue joint statement of maximum pressure.

Spoiler

http://english.yonha...4002600315.html

 

US Intel official says DPRK unlikely to negotiate away the nuke program.

Spoiler

http://english.yonha...000300315F.html

 

President Moon makes a plan to expand the land of the Kaesang Industrial Complex.

Spoiler

http://english.yonha...002500315F.html

 

USS Michigan SSGN arrived at Busan.

Spoiler

http://www.trunews.c...-in-south-korea

 

USS Tucson SSN arrived at Chinhae.

Spoiler

https://thediplomat....in-south-korea/

 

Then we should make clear to Australia that if they use nuclear weapons on Australia, they invite a full retaliatory response from the UK.

 

What the hell, the Australians earned it I think, several times over. Will our PM do it? No.


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#1444 Josh

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Posted 15 October 2017 - 1017 AM

Josh The US would not allow a general war with North Korea to end without regime change. They very likely won't insist on occupying the country, but the regime would be liquidated regardless of Russia or China's feelings in the matter.



That’s probably easier to type than do. If war comes to North Korea both the Chinese and Russians can set up “security zones” in the north of the country, which would function like safe havens for the North Korean army and government, and then what South Korea has is an endless war. And that’s even assuming Kim doesn’t make South Korea glow or dunk them in VX.


Politically the pressure on the US government would be insurmountable. The general population would demand at the minimum the removal of Kim's regime if not his out and out physical death. If China and Russia put troops in North Korea during a general war between the US and the same, they had better be prepared for some dead Chinese and Russian troops.

Edited by Josh, 15 October 2017 - 1023 AM.

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#1445 JWB

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Posted 15 October 2017 - 1101 AM

 

 

Politically the pressure on the US government would be insurmountable.

From where?


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#1446 rmgill

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Posted 15 October 2017 - 1236 PM

From the citizens who the government ultimately reports to and serves at the pleasure of. 


Edited by rmgill, 15 October 2017 - 1237 PM.

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#1447 Nobu

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Posted 15 October 2017 - 2317 PM

Ironically, if the crisis de-escalates the way global outrage over Indian and Pakistani nuclearization in 1998 did, North Korea joins India and Pakistan in diplomatic NPT and CTBT limbo.

 

Fairly surprising to learn of Indian culpability in Pyongyang's nuclear and ballistic missile development as the Diplomat reports:

 

...Even though India was a less significant trade partner for Pyongyang than China or Russia, New Delhi’s decision to suspend trade links deals a significant blow to North Korea’s ballistic missile program. The Center for Space Science and Technology in Asia and the Pacific (CSSTEAP) located in Dehradun, India was one of the few institutes in the world that provided technical training for North Korean students after the UN issued its first set of sanctions against North Korea’s nuclear program in 2006.

 

Before the UN discovered the CSSTEAP’s sanctions violations in 2016, the institute provided at least 30 North Korean scientists with training courses that could greatly assist the development of Pyongyang’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. UN officials were especially alarmed by courses offering satellite communications training and instructions for launch vehicle testing to North Koreans.

 

While Indian officials have downplayed the links between these courses and WMD development, the North Korean government’s appointment of Paek Chong-ho, a CSSTEAP alumnus, to a senior leadership position in the agency governing Pyongyang’s 2012 satellite launch, gives credibility to UN officials’ concerns...


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#1448 glenn239

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 0735 AM

 

JWB Why not? Is PLAN all powerful?

 

 

 

Merchant ships are big fat sitting ducks and so are the port facilities any modern economy relies on.  SLOC wise, Korea is too close to China and Russia. 

 

 

Josh Politically the pressure on the US government would be insurmountable. The general population would demand at the minimum the removal of Kim's regime if not his out and out physical death. If China and Russia put troops in North Korea during a general war between the US and the same, they had better be prepared for some dead Chinese and Russian troops.

 

 

 

Political pressure is speculation.  Public demand isn't moving a finger in the direction of nuclear war and China and Russia are perfectly aware of the fact that wars cost casualties. 


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#1449 JasonJ

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 0829 AM

Large scale training between USS Ronald Reagan carrier strike group and the ROKN, as well as other aircraft, and US special forces meant for decapitation strike, started training that will last until Friday.

Spoiler

http://english.yonha...6001100315.html

 

Trump is making a trip to Asia next month. He will meet with Moon on November 7th.

Spoiler

http://english.yonha...6011753315.html


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#1450 Josh

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 0834 AM

There won't be any sanctuary anywhere inside North Korea if it comes to a major war. Period. Everything south of the Yalu will be a free fire zone. If the Chinese and Russians want to put their ships, planes, and troops inside that area, they can. But they won't have them very long. Invading North Korea would be a very hard and bitter pill for the US to swallow. Making anything on the ground blow up on the other hand would not be challenging, and would generally be demanded by the US populace. Not that the current administration would particularly require much pressure to attempt to kill the regime and anyone that got between the US and Un Poco. It would be very dangerous for the powers in play to assume the outcome would be different then that; they might draw the wrong conclusions as to where a potential conflict would go.
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#1451 glenn239

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 1104 AM

None of that changes the fact that if China decides there will be no regime change, there shall be no regime change.  I mean, look at a map, Josh.


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#1452 JWB

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 1121 AM

This whole discussion is going round in circles and headed  nowhere. None of the nations involved have nothing to gain and much to lose. Except NK. Rocket Boy wants to unify the peninsula under his rule but he must certainly know such dreams are fantasies. Nothing will happen and the region will remain tense for the foreseeable future.


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#1453 glenn239

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 1253 PM

Rocket Boy couldn't care less about reunifying Korea.  He wants to keep control of what he has.


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#1454 JWB

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 1319 PM

Rocket Boy couldn't care less about reunifying Korea.  He wants to keep control of what he has.

http://www.bbc.com/n...d-asia-31001251


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#1455 Panzermann

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 1358 PM

Rocket Boy couldn't care less about reunifying Korea.  He wants to keep control of what he has.

 

Much better to extort money, food, resources and everything from South Korea asn teh rest of the world than haing to shoulder the burden of really running the place. Official propaganda notwithstanding.


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#1456 glenn239

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Posted 17 October 2017 - 0709 AM

Reunification is a non-starter for the North since the South will have nothing to do with its leadership, ever. 


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#1457 JasonJ

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Posted 17 October 2017 - 0721 AM

They both want reunification but they both want it under their own government.
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#1458 JasonJ

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Posted 17 October 2017 - 0829 AM

Trump will visit ROK as a "state visit" rather than the usual "official visit", the first time in 25 years by a US president to ROK.

Spoiler

http://www.koreahera...=20171017000726


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#1459 Dark_Falcon

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Posted 17 October 2017 - 0856 AM

Trump will visit ROK as a "state visit" rather than the usual "official visit", the first time in 25 years by a US president to ROK.

Spoiler

http://www.koreahera...=20171017000726

 

Seems a decent form of fence-mending.  It also shows South Korea to be smart enough to provide the kind of flattery Pres. Trump craves.


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#1460 Nobu

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Posted 17 October 2017 - 0908 AM

It sounds like the chaebols are frightened of Trump altering the terms of the KORUS Free Trade Agreement.


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